A view of COP30

Introduction

The 30th Conference of the Parties, or COP30, the decision-making arm of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is just around the corner. Hosted by Brazil and starting November 10, 2025, the conference returns “home” to the birthplace of the COPs, the Rio Earth Summit of 1992, where the carnival atmosphere and integration of art and culture helped fuel climate diplomacy. This time, it’s in Belém, a major gateway city to the Amazon. The symbolism is hard to miss: the Amazon is a place of global pride and represents a major ecological regulator, and, until recently, one of the most important sources of carbon sequestration. But it is also the location of one of the crucial Earth System tipping points that we cannot afford to cross – more on these later.

COP30 comes 10 years after 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement to ‘limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.’ The main goals of COP30 are clear: accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, scale up climate finance, and strengthen measures to adapt to climate change. This year marks a decade since the unanimous Paris Agreement and the deadline for the second round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the emission reduction targets each country must update and make more ambitious every five years. Yet, as of now, only 64 countries have submitted updated NDCs, covering just 30% of global emissions. The gap between ambition and action remains wide.

Reaching tipping points

Imagine sitting in a chair and tilting it back. At some point, you reach a break point and either tip over - or correct and return to safety. Climate tipping points are similar: they are critical thresholds in the Earth System that, once crossed, can trigger abrupt and often irreversible changes. When a tipping point is breached, self-reinforcing feedback loops can accelerate damage and increase the risk of hitting other tipping points. For example, melting Greenland ice sheets release methane, which speeds up warming and leads to more melting, until the process becomes unstoppable.

According to the Global Tipping Points Report 2025, we have already crossed the first major threshold: the world’s coral reefs are now in irreversible die-off. The report also notes that parts of the polar ice sheets may have crossed tipping points, committing the world to irreversible sea level rise. Amazon dieback is another looming tipping point. If reached, it could transform the Amazon from a rainforest (a vital carbon sink) into a savannah (a carbon source), releasing vast amounts of greenhouse gases and accelerating global warming.

Of growing concern is the potential disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the ocean current that keeps northern Europe much warmer than other regions at similar latitudes. If the AMOC collapses, London could face winters as cold as -20°C and three months of the year at temperatures below freezing, beginning as early as 2050. The knock-on effects would include altered rainfall patterns, sea level changes, and widespread disruption across the Atlantic basin.

Global stocktake: The midyears reality check

The news is, at best, mixed. Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific project, finds that 63% of sovereign net zero targets are “inadequate,” with only 8% considered “sufficient.” Net Zero Tracker, another independent assessment, does highlight real progress, like solar energy surpassing International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts by 1500%, becoming the cheapest electricity in history, but the overall pace is far from what’s needed.

Last year, 2024, was the first year on record to average 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial times for a full year. This milestone, once considered a distant warning, is now our lived reality and many scenarios project that we are heading towards 3°C warming by 2100, based on current policies.

Climate risks: Loss and damage

So how do we talk about climate change and the Paris goals in a world almost certainly headed for overshoot? Reports like the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) “Planetary Solvency” estimate a potential 50% loss in global GDP between 2070 and 2090, using a risk-based methodology that accounts for tipping points and cascading systemic risks, factors traditional economic models often ignore.

These risks are not just theoretical. They include increased displacement, food and water insecurity, and ecosystem collapse. As our understanding of the costs and likelihood of overshoot grows, so does the pushback: 2025 saw delays in regulation and reporting standards, such as the CSRD ‘stop-the-clock’ measure, deferral of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), and the recent postponement of International Maritime Organisation (IMO) net zero framework. We also have started to recognise the ever-present risk of derailment – where the worsening climate impacts destabilise societies, distracting from decarbonisation goals.

Yet, despite open climate scepticism, particularly from the new US administration, much of the world is forging ahead. The UK and China, for example, have both seen their clean energy economy greatly outpacing the wider economy.

Where do we go from here? Legal shifts and new leverage

The scientific revelations can feel overwhelming, especially in today’s geopolitical climate. But 2025 has also brought major sources of progress towards climate goals, driven in part by shifts in climate litigation and legal opinions.

• ICJ Ruling: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled unanimously that access to a safe Earth system is a human right. Although the decision is non-binding, states are now legally obliged to prevent significant harm to the climate system, not only under climate treaties like the Paris Agreement, but also under customary international law and human rights law. Crucially, the ICJ stated that states must exercise due diligence to regulate activities within their jurisdiction. This means that even if international industry regulatory targets have stalled or been delayed, countries and companies are still bound to regulate emissions through a human rights lens.

• Attribution Science in the Courtroom: Recent cases, such as Lliuya -v- RWE – which recognised that major greenhouse gas emitters can, in principle, be held liable under German civil law for contributing to climate-related harm, even where those occur outside the jurisdiction - have opened the door to the use of attribution science in legal proceedings, allowing damage from climate change to be linked directly to the past emissions of specific countries and companies. This is a game-changer for accountability.

• Insurance and Subrogation: As insurance companies struggle with rising climate-related costs and manage the legal implications, there is the potential that they may start to turn to attribution science to pursue subrogation claims, seeking compensation from high emitters to pay for damages.

The upshot: limiting the rise in temperature to as close to 1.5°C as possible is still the goal, even as we navigate the adaptation costs of overshoot. What is clear is that every fraction of a degree matters, and the legal obligations to pursue 1.5°C remain in force. Even if some regulations are delayed, they have not disappeared, and companies and industries must still take steps to prepare to comply.

Collective action: The spirit of “Mutirão”

The theme of COP30 is “mutirão”, a Portuguese word roughly translated as “barn raising” or collective action. It is a fitting metaphor for the moment: working together to minimise climate damage as much as possible, even as we face daunting odds.

COP30 is not just another climate summit. It is an opportunity and a test of our ability to act collectively - as governments, NGOs and industry - to learn from science and law, and to push for a future where planetary solvency is not just an aspiration, but a reality.